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The Sentinel - your economic and investment guardian
 
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The Sentinel FAQ

 

 

 

 

The Sentinel defines money as a medium of exchange, that is a unit of account (something measurable), and is a direct store or representation of wealth.  We use money for the payment of goods and services and for the repayment of debt.  Our money today  (Federal Reserve Notes) does not fit one of these criteria since it is not a direct store or representation of wealth.  Our money is legal tender (decreed by law) to be used for all debts public and private.  This represents a great departure from what money once was.  Much of what operates as money today is really credit.

Site membership is a simple process of going to the Purchase page (top menu bar) and purchasing a free membership to The Sentinel web site.  There is more information available to a member versus a casual browser.  The enhancement to site membership is a newsletter subscription.  Newsletter subscription contains paid content.  For more information click on Join our Site in the top menu bar or click HERE to go there directly. 

The golden ratio has been the subject of great fascination for mathematicians, biologists, artists, historians, architects, and psychologists.  The golden ratio fascinated ancient Greek mathematicians due to its frequent appearance in geometry. 

The figure below illustrates the basic concept of the golden ratio. The ratio says that there is a unique relationship in the proportion of the components of line segment ab. If one takes the length of the line segment (a+b) and divides it by the length of the largest component of the segment (a) that number is equivalent to dividing (a) by (b). Moreover, this division is approximately equal to 1.618. 

The Greek letter phi, usually lower case (φ), is a representation of the golden ratio. The use of the Greek letter phi in reference to the golden ratio is attributed to the Greek sculptor Phidias who thought the ratio important in the determination of proportion in art and nature. The sculptor constructed the statues of Athena in the Parthenon and Zeus at Olympia (one of the seven wonders of the ancient world). 
 
Another interesting aspect of the golden ratio is its appearance in a number sequence called a Fibonacci sequence. The Fibonacci sequence is named after Leonardo of Pisa, who was also known as Fibonacci. The Fibonacci sequence of numbers is as follows:
 
1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144
 

Each number in the sequence is the sum of the previous two numbers in the sequence. For example, the number 13 in the series is the sum of 8 and 5. The sum of 8 and 13 produces the next number after 13, which is 21 and so on. Interestingly enough as one progresses higher in this sequence of numbers, the ratio of two adjacent numbers in the sequence approaches 1.618. If we consider the adjacent numbers 144 and 89, dividing the two (144/89) yields a ratio of 1.6179. The use of Fibonacci sequences also has application to technical market analysis.

Fibonacci and golden ratio relationships exist in the study of stock and other trading markets. The use of such techniques falls under a branch of study called technical analysis. The Sentinel uses its own proprietary technical analysis to understand market movements and the use of Fibonacci and the golden ratio simply provide another method of technical analysis. 

The present and future period will be one of less trust in some of our institutions.  This includes the realm of fund managers, hedge funds, investment advisors, stock brokers, and banks, just to name a few.  There was very little analysis done on the part of the investing public and it did not matter if it was a high-roller or Joe Six-Pack, their losses occurred.  This condition, in fact, is the basis of manias or bubbles. 

The next investment climate will be one of greater conservatism.  The Sentinel's approach is to not simply dispense advice but to educate as well.  The future investor will be more thoughtful regarding their investment decisions.  It is The Sentinel's intention to cater to an investor willing to learn and arrive at their own decisions regarding investment options presented in a clear manner.  Additionally, many economic topics, previously cloaked in confusing language will be developed to promote greater understanding.  This lack of understanding of economic topics has hurt individual and public finances.

Our thesis is that the new Saeculum brings in a set of cyclical changes not just economically but socially.  We also argue that the social changes tend to inspire the economic ones.  For example:

 

Saecular comparison
Old Saeculum New Saeculum
Spending Conservation
Internationalism Nationalism
Two-party politics in U.S. "Third" parties
Social harmony Social discord

 

  • Where the previous Saeculum emphasized spending and credit, the new one will focus people more on what they have versus what they want.
  • Nationalism will surface as more countries adopt a "me first" attitude.  Recent provisions in the U.S. stimulus legislation mandated "Made in the USA" for some of the spending.  There will be a greater call for tariffs.

  • A polarization of opinions will inspire the creation of third parties whose adherents will feel like the two-party system in the United States failed them.

  • Perhaps the greatest danger of the new Saeculum is the potential drift into social discord.  At a time when the need for cooperation is the greatest, there will be a tendency towards focus on increasingly smaller social units perhaps as small as the individual.

 

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